I keep hearing "Deflation before massive inflation"
So what can we do about it? Any ideas are welcome. It has a lot of "what if's"... It depends how tax and law play out with it.Historically speaking:
Commodities and things people use every day become expensive,
Luxury goods fall in value.
Inflation wipes out all savings, there is often a rush to spend money while it has value. "Bank runs" and "Bank Bail in's" where the bank will limit your withdraws to prop up the bank temporarily. Sure here the FDIC may insure it, but its nothing if your money is losing value by the hour and it takes months to get it actually into your hands. And many countries have issues with a person holding cash..."You're automatically a drug dealer! >your money is now drug money! >Asset forfeiture" ...I cant count how many times this happens.
People yell " physical gold and silver!" ... yeah, those do hold value well, however the gov does tax that at 26-30% when sold, and will often ban its use in dire times. ....huge grey / pirate area.
Mining stock is the same in the tax range, and nearly anything you "resell", imposed taxes and royalties can be added leaving you high and dry.
Precious metal holdings have been banned in the past, even here in the USA...aka Government confiscation.
Nationalization of Precious metals mines have happened.
Edit: I now realize there are many ways stocks can play out.
Real Estate will raise in value hugely, However so will the taxes, longer contracts at fixed rates benefits the lendee.
Things that you use, if you can stock or invest in it.
-I stock bulk diesel for my cars while following historical averages to buy cheap.
-Rotating food stock
-Extra maintenance items, including the big things like a roof on your home if its coming time. Not joking I have a spare water heater and backup heating options, along with minor parts and filters to fix them. Same with cars and engines, (spark plugs, filters (all different filters), oil, cheap sensors that usually go bad and are only 4-10$ each, 1-2 extra alternator per vehicle, belts, mowing belts, bearings, grease, ... and I've literally had to use everything on that list and reorder.)
Things that directly pay you back or are insurance. Saving money is making money.
-Security, Locks, Alarms, Cameras, people steal.
A deep freezer for instance can stock food you use and buy on sale.
Solar energy and solar heating supplements energy you use anyways
Rainwater can be collected and used rather than buying from a source.
A cooking gadget vs eating out.
Tools and learning to fix things vs hire.
House insulation.-Better insulative windows, and sealing.
Bidet on toilet (lol serious though...)
Your education can be a huge one, not just for prepping but also in your work.
Things that prevent rot, fire, flood / humidity, or failure. Humidity is a silent killer to many preps. (water sump pumps, dehumidifiers, leak prevention, fire extinguishers / sprinklers, )
Things that last and can be resold on the street if need be. This list can be huge, you have to balance it with liquidity, what you use but can also sell before it goes bad / fails.
Honestly and unpopularly, Things that can avoid tax when the price inflates out of control and you wish to sell. The numbers can be so distorted in both price and taxing of income. Eggs for instance, in many countries from Weimar Republic of Germany to Venezuela, increased 15,000%+, So that $15,000 egg / $150,000 dozen that you sold from your chickens gets taxed in the highest tax bracket? (which can go into the 90% range if rules aren't changed for the massive inflation) Taxes usually try raising during this and many companies flee the country, add robots / machines, or downsize as the result of more taxes making work and jobs even more of an issue. .. honestly history shows the whole thing being a cluster-duck in so many ways. Alternative currencies pop up, actual trades happen and go unreported, crime even shifts when things get too bad, again with Venezuela, I read that criminals were moving to other countries because the people were too poor to even make anything robbing! You can also have a business where you write off so many things that you would use anyways. The numbers get... err... odd, play the game.
It is usually around 10 years of chaos before things start "stabilizing." and even then, so much damage has occured.
This is a serious thing that has happened to once prosperous people / civilizations in the past...don't think you're exempt, especially when the numbers are at historical limits in many countries. Invest in yourself and what you use regularly.
DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir). Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance. Inspiration Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out. A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing. Data Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors. Google Search Trends \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months \"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months Brokerage data Robinhood SPY holders \"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement TD Ameritrade Excerpt Media cnbc.com Alexa rank CNBC viewership & rankings wallstreetbets comments / day investing comments / day Analysis What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well. However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so. SPX daily Rationale Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market. Sentiment & Magic Crayons As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality. From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities. SPY daily Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data. There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend. This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level. VIX Daily Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so. Putting Everything Together Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180. tldr; we've reached the top EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested. 5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level 5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing. 5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts 5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play. 5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30. 5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit. 5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30. 5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again 5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p 5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend. 5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there. 5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
COVID-19's Economic Impact in Canada: a collection of stats on jobs losses, investment returns, consumer confidence, interest rates, housing, and future forecasts
Over the past few weeks, the COVID crisis has hurt the Canadian economy and the average Canadian's financial situation in more ways than one. I tried to tally up the damage by going through the info that's been published thus far (by Stats Can, the Bank of Canada, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, news sites, etc.), and have put together some visualizations and commentary on the data. In summary:
Stats Can's March labour force survey showed that 3.1 million Canadians had their job situation impacted negatively during the survey period (March 15 - March 21); that's ~16% of Canada's total labour force
1 million Canadians lost their jobs; 0.8 million had a job but didn't work any hours; 1.3 million had a job but worked less than half of their usual hours
Canadians worked 15% fewer hours in the month of March vs February; the impact was highest in Quebec (-19%), and lowest in Newfoundland and Labrador (-8.4%)
As of April 13th, nearly 6 million Canadians have applied for CERB or EI (reported by the CBC)
Investments (2020 year-to-date returns)
Stock markets are down by roughly 15 - 20% (TSX Composite is down by 17%)
Bond markets are roughly flat
Gold is up by 14% (as investors tend to flock to gold in times of economic uncertainty)
Bitcoin is down by 4%
Canadian oil prices are down by ~70%
Google search volume in Canada for the terms "recession" and "layoff" are the highest on record, even surpassing the search volume during the 2008 recession
The Conference Board of Canada's "Index of Consumer Confidence" registered the largest monthly decline ever in March
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate 3 separate times in March, dropping the rate from 1.75% to 0.25%
The rate hasn't been this low since the 2008 recession
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board showed a 16% decline in home sale volumes in the Greater Toronto Area in the second half of March
RBC Economics expects that “Canada’s housing market will slow to a crawl this spring”, and that housing prices will face a temporary set-back — with an estimated 2.9% year-over-year price decline in the second half of 2020
Post-COVID Economic Forecasts
On April 9th, Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer released a “scenario analysis” report on the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy.
It’s estimated that the federal government’s responses to the COVID crisis will have a total cost of over $105 billion
As a result, Canada’s budget deficit in the 2020-21 fiscal year will rise to $185 billion, or roughly 8.5% of GDP
Canada’s budget deficit hasn’t been this high (based on % of GDP) since the 1984-85 fiscal year
In 2020, Canada will have real GDP growth of -5.1%, and an unemployment rate of 12.4%; for context, Canada's real GDP only declined by 3.3% in 2009
The number of unemployed Canadians will rise from 1.2 million (Q4 2019) to 3.1 million (Q3 2020)
These points are addressed in chart form at the link above. You can download a spreadsheet which contains all of the source data / charts. There's also a summary of the emergency response initiatives announced by the federal government (CERB, GST credit, CCB one-time payment, the 75% wage subsidy, etc.), and thoughts about steps that Canadians can take today to improve their financial situation. I'll continue to update the page as new economic stats roll-in, and as the government announces new initiatives. I'd love to hear your thoughts about COVID's economic impact in Canada. Also, please feel free to share any other stats, articles, or reports that you think are relevant!
Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020
We would rather be ruined than changed. -W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757 Secured physical gold – $18 913 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479 Bitcoin – $148 990 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484 Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under) Global shares – 22.0% Emerging markets shares – 2.3% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under) Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.7% International bonds – 9.4% Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under) Gold – 7.7% Bitcoin – 8.4% Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March. The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year. [Chart] The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017. [Chart] There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf). A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains. As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here. Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares. A moving azimuth: falling spending continues Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. [Chart] The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending. This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence. The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month. [Chart] There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile. Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations. Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June. These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey. This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably. A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades. I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
An 'adjusted income' approach - stripping out the capital gains components of Vanguard funds to reach an estimate of underlying income generation, both across the entire investment period, and during the sharpest low of the Global Financial Crisis
A long-term asset class approach - relying on long-term historical data on averages of the income produced by various asset classes
A 'tax method' approach - this derives an income estimate as a percentage of the portfolio by drawing on taxable investment income totals from tax return records
Simple historical rolling average - this is a rolling three-year measure, based on the actual distributions record of the portfolio
Average distribution rate approach - this method uses a long-term average of annual distributions received as a percentage of the total portfolio since 1999
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks. Developing new navigation tools Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns. This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets. In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years. Mapping the distribution estimates The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come. [Chart] Some observations on these findings can be made. The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on. Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome. Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations. Central estimates of the line of position This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range. I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence. My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure. None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data. These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years. As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive. Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9% Summary The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions. Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well. Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias. This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface. Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half. With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real. Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change? The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.
19 Dec 2018 [-9.56%, avg block time 11min 3secs]
3 Dec 2018 [-15.13%, avg block time 11min 47secs]
17 Nov 2018 [-7.39%, avg block time 10min 48secs]
There was huge drop off starting on 14th Nov all the way to a bottom on 14-15th Dec ($6351 to $3288 around -48%).
Current situation: We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment). For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined). There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip. I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June. Please visit the original post here https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/gm23pe/warning_blockchain_difficulty_adjustment/ There are pictures in the original post as well as 2nd halving evidence with pics. I could not post pics here. If possible please upvote the original post, a lot of people downvote it. Not sure why people downvote it, maybe veterans attempting to hide information from newcomers to fleece them of their shirt. Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!< Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA. On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%. On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%. On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min. My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much. Update 3: Current BTC price at $9100 ( ~39 hours after DA). Then again BTC could have dropped from all sorts of reason. However the coincidence with the DA and with all the past DA is just too high to simply shrug off as irrelevant. Anyways past result cannot predict future ones, stay safe with the trading. Will no longer check on this post. References: Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap. Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time Credits to people who assisted the analysis: kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th. babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
What A Day: Stitt Down And Shut Up by Sarah Lazarus & Crooked Media (07/15/20)
"If it’s Goya, it has to be good." - Ivanka Trump, violating federal ethics rules
Bean Here Before
With hospitals filling up and businesses shutting back down across wide swaths of the country, the Trump administration seems to have no pandemic strategy beyond sowing confusion and flogging beans.
The U.S. confirmed 67,417 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday, a new daily record. Cases have increased in 41 states over the past two weeks, Texas and Florida each recorded record numbers of coronavirus deaths yesterday, and an influential model now projects a national death toll of 224,000 by November 1.
From here on out, we’ll have to take those updates with a (chunkier) grain of salt. The Trump administration’s move to cut the CDC out of hospital-data collection means that all COVID-19 patient information will be sent to a database that isn’t open to the public. That reporting system is just as cumbersome as the CDC’s and doesn’t solve any of its real problems, but it sure does raise questions about whether researchers, modelers, and health officials will have access to the data they rely on to make projections and public-health decisions. (It also means a multimillion-dollar contract for the private firm TeleTracking, which we look forward to learning is owned by Jared Kushner’s frat brother’s father-in-law or whatever.)
Administration officials have also doubled down on their campaign to publicly discredit Dr. Anthony Fauci. “He has been wrong about everything I have interacted with him on,” wrote White House trade advisor Peter Navarro in a USA Today op-ed, omitting that his favorite expert is literally a guy he made up. White House officials weakly disavowed the op-ed and claimed Navarro went rogue, which is reportedly (you may wanna sit down) a lie. Fauci pushed back on the attacks in an interview with The Atlantic: “I cannot figure out in my wildest dreams why they would want to do that.” An evergreen take.
Meanwhile, life comes at you fast.
Gov. Kevin Stitt (R-OK), who attended President Trump’s rally in Tulsa and rarely wears a mask at public gatherings, has tested positive for coronavirus. “I was pretty shocked that I was the first governor to get it,” said Stitt, calmly reaching both hands towards a hot stove. Stitt has resisted a statewide mask order, and after testing positive said that he’s still "not thinking about a mask mandate at all."
Twenty-five states plus Washington, DC, have now issued mask mandates, with Alabama becoming the latest to do so on Wednesday. Walmart announced that customers will be required to wear masks at all U.S. stores, which could have a ripple effect among other retailers—Kroger has already followed its lead. CDC Director Robert Redfield said on Tuesday that the U.S. could get the pandemic under control within two months if every American wore a mask; that feat would also likely require the federal government to take on a role beyond “hour-long presidential rants in the Rose Garden,” but masks would be a start.
The Trump administration condemned the country to a second surge of infections by refusing to coordinate a national response, leaving even the best state leaders to adopt piecemeal solutions by trial and error. Rather than try a different tack the second time around, Trump has committed to undermining widely trusted health experts and hiding the data that makes even those local decisions possible.
Look No Further Than The Crooked Media
Last week the Adopt a State program sent out our first Call to Action emails, and (without a hint of bias here) Florida crushed it. Team Florida has already raised upwards of $42k to support a Virtual Voter Registration Program—that will help reach 400,000 Floridians, which could cover Trump's margin of victory almost four times over. We'll be sending each state team new calls to action every week via email, so keep checking your inbox and getting those actions done. And if you haven’t already signed up, head on over to https://votesaveamerica.com/adopt and join the thousands of volunteers looking to flip some swing states.
Under The Radar
The new head of the Postal Service has implemented major operational changes that could slow down mail delivery. Postmaster General and Trump donor Louis DeJoy instructed employees to leave mail behind at distribution centers as needed to avoid delaying mail carriers from completing their routes, a change from postal workers’ traditional mandate to not leave letters behind for the next day. DeJoy cited the agency’s need to cut costs, but the decision could chase away more customers and put the Postal Service in a deeper financial hole. It could also prove disastrous in November, when voters could lose access to mail-in ballots due to slow delivery. The Treasury Department has continued to hold a $10 billion emergency loan hostage until USPS gives in to Trump’s political agenda, and Congress has yet to provide additional funding.
Fatal drug overdoses are likely surging during the pandemic. Drug deaths in the U.S. reached record numbers in 2019 after falling the year before, and the pandemic may be worsening the resurgence. A report in May found overdose rates have increased by an average of 20 percent across six states in 2020, and recent drug tests have found a substantial increase in illicit drug use, as well as a geographic spread of fentanyl. Overdoses were increasing before the pandemic, but it’s definitely not helping: Social isolation puts addicts at greater risk, treatment centers have been disrupted, and people who have overdosed are more likely to avoid emergency rooms out of fear of infection.
What A Sponsor
Eco-Friendly Flowers for All! Brighten up your summer with vibrant flowers from The Bouqs Co. Think farm-fresh bouquets, simplified. Plus plants, gifts and even subscriptions that can bring smiles for months! Perfect for birthdays, anniversaries, friendship day or just because you put on pants today! The best part? Flowers from The Bouqs stay fresher, longer. Save 25% with code VOTEBOUQS.
Is That Hope I Feel?
SHE’S OUT OF THE HOSPITAL. Leaders in Asheville, NC, voted unanimously to provide reparations to the city’s Black residents. Virginia has become the first state to adopt statewide emergency workplace safety standards in response to the coronavirus. British artist Marc Quinn erected a statue of a Black Lives Matter protester in Bristol, on the plinth that used to hold a statue of slave trader Edward Colston.
Well, February 22nd makes it one whole year. I think that's deserving of a top level post, right? Here are screenshots of the Mint Trends, which has every single expense from the past year categorized. I've added comments on each page. Expenses Overview Auto Expenses Food Expenses Home Expenses Utility Expenses Tax Expenses Healthcare Expenses Entertainment Expenses Main takeaways, my total expenses for the year was $37,700, but I'm going to dismiss about $15,000 of that as "one time" expenses from paying off my car and my furniture loan. A more reasonable number for my annual spend is $22,700. With my car payment gone, my highest expense category is Food, averaging $500 per month. This has room for improvement. Healthcare will look artificially low last year because of taking Tax Credits up front. This year I am not and will be paying $325 per month for health insurance. At ~$4000 per year, this puts healthcare at nearly 20% of my total expenses. Nothing else is particularly interesting. That $22,700 figure is a reasonable real-world number for me, but for future planning I'd still inflate that to $25,000 just to have more wiggle room. I may look into traveling this year, which would add some expense. Investments: Vanguard Investments: (All in VTSAX)
Traditional IRA: $299,000 -> $348,000
Roth IRA: $14,500 -> $18,150
Brokerage: $18,400 -> $22,900
Total Rollup: $331,800 -> $389,100. ~17% return
Other LTCG holdings: $145,000 -> $291,000 (other investment accounts and bitcoin) HSA Investment Account: $6000 -> $7400, with another $1700 in the "cash" holdings of the HSA. $9000 cash in Money Market & Checking Account. Finances Going Forward I had earned income last year so I didn't start my Roth Conversion Ladder last year. This year I decided I will be converting the $12,400 standard deduction + $9600 of the first tax bracket for a nice round $22,000 converted. Yes I'll owe a little bit of taxes, but it sets up my Roth with $22k in 5 years which should cover the majority of my expenses. And with $350k currently in tIRA and converting $22,000 per year, I won't be able to chew through it all before actual retirement age. I have about $20k from an old stock purchase plan that unlocks come April, which I will be selling and likely moving over to my money market account to shore up my "cash" holdings. My plan is to not really tap any of my "normal" investment accounts for as long as possible. I've been deferring to selling Bitcoin if I need to move some cash over. Last year I sold 3 bitcoin, one for $9300 in June, and then two at the end of December (for tax year Capital Gains reasons) for $7300 each. These were all LTCG at 0% taxed. AGI for last year is around $35,000. The Living Part: There's all the boring expenses and financial stuff. Now for the ever painful question that my beloved Grandmother loves to ask, "But gosh, what do you do with all of your time! I can't imagine being retired at your age!" Step 1, restful sleep. During my working career I lived off 6 hours of sleep every day. It made for exhausting weekends trying to "make it up." And luckily I'm not a generally stressful person or else it'd have been worse. But now I go to bed when I'm tired, and whenever I naturally wake up, I get up. This can lead to VERY weird hours since I'm often an extreme night owl. But I generally get 9-10 perfect restful uninterrupted dream-filled hours of sleep. I'm betrayed by my "Food Expense" breakdown, but I really am cooking more and eating better. I drink a lot of coffee and water at home and generally try to eat only one meal per day, but sometimes lunch and dinner. I don't normally eat breakfast, just have coffee when I wake up. And did I mention how much less painful it is to go grocery shopping when it's in the middle of the day and everyone's at work. It's so nice. I spend a lot of time on reddit browsing my front page, and I check out the YouTubers I follow that post daily, then check out any of the irregular posters. Depending on how much good stuff there is, this could go on for a few hours. I have a lot of hours playing video games. I tend toward puzzle games or building games (Factorio, Satisfactory) because they scratch that itch in my engineering brain. There are times at night where I'll spend hours on this website: https://www.puzzle-sudoku.com/ and play Sudoku or Nonograms or any of the other puzzle types on the bottom of the page. I'm doing my best to watch every single last show on Netflix. It's a daunting task, though it's surprising how often I drift back toward watching the same smattering of Star Trek: The Next Generation episodes rather than try something new. But I try and take recommendations and work my way through shows. And Podcasts! The joy of joys is when I come across a new-to-me podcast that has a huge backlog. I found a great ST:TNG rewatch podcast that had 108 episodes already done. I spent like 2 months watching the episode of TNG then immediately listening to their podcast about that episode, repeat repeat repeat. I'm currently working my way through The Adventure Zone, I'm on episode 46 of 155 with them. And they keep advertising the other podcasts The McElroys do so I'm sure I'll roll into one of those next. For many people podcasts are background noise, but I'll often just sit on the couch and concentrate on just listening the podcast. Outside of home, I can't wait for the weather to get nicer so I can go on more walks. Being a night owl I like going for walks at night. I live near our city center so I'm within blocks of city hall, the main library branch, and the fountain / park. I jump at any opportunity to hang out with friends. It's just about every weekend that we are getting together to hang out and play board games. Like I mentioned in one of the breakdowns, I've started to play D&D with my buddy and his wife. I'd never played before but he's been DMing for years (but hasn't had a group for 10+ years now). He's glad to be playing again, his wife loves it, and it's super convenient for them to stay home with the 5 month old daughter. (And baby gets to hang out with Uncle Oracle.) I get together with former co-workers every few months to keep in touch with them. One in particular I have a standing every-2-month bar date with. I remind them every so often that if they want to go out to lunch ever to just call me. Personal History Just a quick personal history in closing. I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed. But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year. I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000. Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts. Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out. TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine
$ 144 million transaction cost bitcoin whale 30 cents commission
One of the largest Bitcoin holders emptied his wallet in one transaction at 14,922 BTC ($ 144 million). The commission was only $ 0.3. Information about the movement of funds published service Whale Alert. According to him, bitcoins were transferred to an unknown address. https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1262484285908549640 https://preview.redd.it/3x5974i37pz41.jpg?width=560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a847137857dbb3406e07a95a0a39413cd1b4e122 The identity of the whale is also unknown, but its wallet has been the subject of close attention in recent months. According to BitInfoCharts, on April 5, the address was 58th in terms of the number of bitcoins on the balance sheet (12,380 BTC or $ 85.08 million at the exchange rate of that time). https://preview.redd.it/qxlsc45y7pz41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6c7e25119d4b35e94da1ed1a323eaf46d97e3232 On May 13, the wallet rose to 48th place, bringing the total cryptocurrency to 15,470 BTC ($ 138.15 million at that time). A week earlier, an unknown whale transferred 47,835 BTC ($ 417 million) with a commission of $ 1.44. In October 2019, a transaction on 112,027 BTC was carried out on the Bitcoin network (more than $ 930 million at that time). The commission then amounted to $ 3.89. In September last year, a transaction was recorded at 94,504 BTC, which exceeded $ 1 billion at the exchange rate at the time of the transfer. In this case, the commission turned out to be unusually high - $ 700.
Two Roads Diverge | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - May 2020
Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth Robert Frost, The Road Not Taken This is my forty-second portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $727 917 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 128 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 569 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 009 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $187 003 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 987 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $225 540 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 726 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 741 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 652 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 714 Secured physical gold – $18 982 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $11 395 Bitcoin – $159 470 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 357 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 492 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477 Total portfolio value: $1 757 159 (+$62 325 or 3.7%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 41.4% (3.6% under) Global shares – 22.2% Emerging markets shares – 2.3% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 27.4% (2.6% under) Total shares – 68.8% (6.2% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.4% International bonds – 9.7% Total bonds – 14.1% (0.9% under) Gold – 7.8% Bitcoin – 9.1% Gold and alternatives – 16.9% (6.9% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments This month featured a further recovery in the overall portfolio, continuing to effectively reduce the size of the large losses across the first quarter. The portfolio has increased by around $62 000, leading to a portfolio growth of 3.7 per cent. This means that around half of the large recent falls have been made up, and the portfolio sits around levels last reached in October of last year. [Chart] Leading the portfolio growth has been increases in Australian shares - particularly those held through the Betashares A200 and Vanguard VAS exchange traded funds, with both gaining over four per cent. Most other holdings remained steady, or fell slightly. Markets appear to be almost entirely disconnected from the daily announcements of the sharp effects of the global coronavirus pandemic and the resulting restrictions. Bond and equity markets seem to have different and competing expectations for the future, and equity markets - at best - are apparently intent on looking through the immediate recovery phase to a new period of strong expansion. [Chart] On some metrics, both major global and Australian equity markets can be viewed as quite expensive, especially as reduced dividends announced have largely yet to be delivered. Yet if historically low bond yields are considered, it can be argued that some heightening compared to historical equity market valuations may be sustainable. Reflecting this moment of markets holding their breath before one of two possible futures plays out, gold and Bitcoin remain elevated, and consequently above their target weightings. Perhaps the same contending forces are in evidence in a recent Australian Securities and Investment Commission study (pdf) which has found that average Australian retail investors have reacted to uncertainty by activating old brokerage accounts, trading more frequently, and holding securities for shorter periods. My own market activity has been limited to purchases of Vanguard Australian shares ETF (VAS) and the international share ETF (VGS), to bring the portfolio closer to its target allocations. Will Australia continue to be lucky through global slow downs? Despite this burst of market activity in the retail market, it is unclear how Australian markets and equities will perform against the background of a global economic slowdown. A frequently heard argument is that a small open trade exposed commodities provider such as Australia, with a more narrowly-based economy, may perform poorly in a phase of heightened risk. This recent Bank of England paper (pdf) makes the intriguing suggestion that this argument is not borne out by the historical record. In fact, the paper finds that industrial production in Australia, China and a mere handful of other economies has tended to increase following global risk shocks. A question remaining, however, is whether the recovery from this 'risk shock' may have different characteristics and impacts than similar past events. One key question may be the exact form of government fiscal and monetary responses adopted. Another is whether inflation or deflation is the likely pathway - an unknown which itself may rely on whether long-term trends in the velocity of money supply continue, or are broken. Facing all uncertainties, attention should be on tail risks - and minimising the odds of extreme negative scenarios. The case for this is laid out in this moving reflection by Morgan Housel. For this reason, I am satisfied that my Ratesetter Peer-to-Peer loans have been gradually maturing, reducing some 'tail risk' credit exposures in what could be a testing phase for borrowers through new non-bank lending channels in Australia. With accrued interest of over $13 000, at rates of around 9 per cent on average, over the five years of the investment, the loans have performed relatively well. A temporary sheltering port - spending continues to decline This month spending has continued to fall even as lockdown and other restrictions have slowly begun to ease. These extraordinary events have pushed even the smoothed average of three year expenditure down. [Chart] On a monthly basis credit card spending and total expenses have hit the lowest levels in more than six years. Apparently, average savings rates are up across many economies, though obviously individual experiences and starting points can differ dramatically. Total estimated monthly expenditure has also fallen below current estimates of distributions for the first time since a period of exceptionally high distributions across financial year 2017-18. The result of this is that I am briefly and surprisingly, for this month, notionally financially independent based on assumed distributions from the FIRE portfolio alone - at least until more normal patterns of expenditure are resumed. Following the lines of drift - a longer view on progress made Yet taking a longer view - and accounting for the final portfolio goal set - gives a different perspective. This is of a journey reaching toward, but not at, an end. The chart below traces in purely nominal dollar terms the progress of the total portfolio value as a percentage of the current portfolio goal of $2.18 million over the last 13 years. It also shows three labels, with the percentage progress at the inception of detailed portfolio data in 2007, at the start of this written record in January 2017, and as at January 1 of this year. [Chart] Two trend lines are shown - one a polynomial and the other exponential function - and they are extended to include a projection of future progress out to around 18 months. The line of fit is close for the early part of the journey, but larger divergences from both trend lines are evident in the past two years as the impact of variable investment returns on a larger portfolio takes hold. There are some modest inaccuracies introduced by the nominal methodology adopted - such as somewhat discounting early progress. A 2007 dollar had greater 'real' value and significance than is assigned to it by this representation. The chart does demonstrate, however, the approximate shape and length of the early journey - with it taking around 5 years to reach 20 per cent of the target, and 10 years to reach around half way. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 80.6% 108.4% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.3% 132.3% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 78.8% 106.0% Summary With aspects of daily life slowly and incrementally adjusting to a 'new normal', the longer-term question for the portfolio remains around how markets and government actions interact in a recovery phase. The progress of the portfolio over the past 13 years has seemed, when viewed from afar as in chart above, predictable, and almost inevitable. Through the years it has felt anything but so smoothly linear. Rather, tides and waves have pushed and pulled, in turn stalling progress, or pushing it further ahead than hopes have dared. It is possible that what lays ahead is a simple 'return leg', or more of the same. That through simple extrapolation around 80 per cent of the challenges already lay behind. Yet that is not the set of mind that I approach the remainder of the journey with. Rather, the shortness of the distance to travel has lent an extra focus on those larger, lower probability, events that could delay the journey or push it off-course. Those 'third' risks types of tail risks which Morgan Housel points out. In one sense the portfolio allocation aims to deal - in a probabilistic way - with the multiple futures that could occur. Viewed in this way, a gold allocation (and also Bitcoin) represents a long option on an extreme state of the economic world arising - as it did in the early 1980s. The 75 per cent target allocation to equities can be viewed as a high level of assurance around a 'base case' that human ingenuity and innovation will continue to create value over the long term. The bond portfolio, similarly, can be seen as assigning a 15 per cent probability that both of these hypotheses are incorrect, and that further market falls and possible deflation are ahead. That perhaps even an experience akin to the lengthy, socially dislocating, post-bubble phase in Japan presided over by its central bank lays in store. In other interesting media consumed this month, 'Fire and Chill', the brand new podcast collaboration between Pat the Shuffler and Strong Money Australia got off to an enjoyable start, tackling 'Why Bother with FIRE' and other topics. Additionally, investment company Incrementum has just published the latest In Gold We Trust report, which gives an arrestingly different perspective on potential market and policy directions from traditional financial sources. The detailed report questions the role and effectiveness of traditionally 'risk-free' assets like government bonds in the types of futures that could emerge. On first reading, the scenarios it contains appear atypical and beyond the reasonable contemplation of many investors - until it is recalled that up to a few years ago no mainstream economics textbook would have entertained the potential for persistent negative interest rates. As the paths to different futures diverge, drawing on the wisdom of others to help look as far as possible into the bends in the undergrowth ahead becomes the safest choice. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
For Trading JULY 16th GS Earnings a Beat Prop-Trading Helps NASDAQ Still Weaker TWTR HACKED Today’s market got off to a decent start with the futures indicating a gain of about 500+, but it didn’t live up to its promise, falling back and reaching up “only” 428 and making that high by 9:45 and trading sideways to lower and making a low around 12:15 at + just 50 before turning back up to make a lower high +240 and selling off again, but making a late gain back to +310 before the last little selloff to close +227.51 (.85%), NASDAQ +61.91 (.59%), S&P 500 +29.04 (.91%), the Russell +50.05 (3.5%) and the big winner, DJ Transports +424.96 (4.56%). Market internals were strong with the NYSE A/D 5:1 and NAZ 4:1 with slightly higher volume than yesterday. The DJIA was 25:5 with the big gainer BA, +55 and UNH the big loser -31 DP’s. There was plenty of good news from the Beige Book gains, Industrial production +5.4% v 4.6 est., import / export gains and mortgage apps +5.1%. Tomorrow we have Initial and continuing claims, retail sales, Phili Fed, NAHB housing and business inventories. Plenty to obsess about! Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/hEiml2wDNeA SECTORS: Goldman Sachs (GS) reported great numbers, buoyed by proprietary trading and while the stock traded as high as $225.24, it couldn’t hold those gains and finished $216.90 +2.89 (1.35%). So, as I mentioned in tonight’s video (link above) the airlines and cruise lines were propelled higher by the news from Moderna (MRNA) that their vaccine produces twice the antigens as those from patients that have recovered from the illness. MRNA finished $80.22 +5.18 (6.9%) after trading as high as $88.37. The airlines were AAL+1.87 (16%), DAL +2.49 (9.5%), LUV +.60 (2.2%), while the cruise lines were CCL +2.44 (16.2%), RCL +10.21 (21%), and NCLH +3.17 (20.6%). If I had to pick one that I’d go with, it would be none of these. I think the play will be in EXPE $90.23 +7.76 (9.4%) since people will need to book regardless of what they want to do or where they want to go. The TWTR hack of several high profile users, Obama, Biden, Bill Gates, Kanye West and Elon Musk was a crypto scam announcing a giveaway that required the sender to deposit .1 BTC in order to receive .2 BTC back…yeah, right…I’m so sure Joe Biden wants to double my money! And, the HOMERUN of the day was the Australian Biotech, Genetic Tech (GENE), whose “Severity Risk Test” was updated on a webinar. The stock was as low as $1.41 earlier this year and closed on Tuesday @ $2.26 and opened the day today @ 2.75 and ran up to $10.30 before closing $5.67 +3.41 (150.89%). Clearly a homerun! FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN +1.71, BGS -.27, FLO -.13, CPB -1.06, CAG -.37, MDLZ -.19, CALM -.14, JJSF +2.11, SAFM +1.77, HRL -.27, SJM -1.31 and PPC $16.53 +.30 (1.85%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +1.69, ABBV +1.60, REGN -8.49, ISRG +22.46, GILD -.44, MYL +.43, TEVA +.88, VRTX +1.28, BHC +1.25, INCY -.05, ICPT +1.93, LABU +4.17 and IBB $142.74 +2.48 (1.77%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.24, CGC +.81, CRON +.67, GWPH -3.99, ACB +1.11, CURLF +.10, KERN +.42, and MJ $13.64 +.38 (2.87%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +9.94, GD +2.64, TXT +1.05, NOC +5.21, BWXT +1.24, TDY +21.12, RTX +2.73 and ITA $165.19 +5.58 (3.5%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.39, JWN +1.12, KSS +1.88, DDS +1.73, WMT +.37, TGT +1.59, TJX +2.57, RL +4.23, UAA +.87, LULU +4.19, TPR +.95, CPRI +1.35 FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -5.74, AMZN -86.00, AAPL +.61, FB -.53, NFLX -.38, NVDA -8.78, TSLA -5.80, BIDU -.69, CMG +33.98, BABA +.25, CAT +2.62, BA +6.32, DIS +1.74, and XLK $107.64 +.58 (.54%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.54, JPM +.99, BAC +.52, MS +1.32, C +1.60, PNC +2.89, AIG +.76, TRV +.79, AXP +2.54, V +2.72 and XLF $24.15 +.47 (1.98%). OIL, $41.20 +.91. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and we finally did that today. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.38 +.79 (2.16%). GOLD $1,813.80 +.40. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.40 +.12. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $1.54 -05. BITCOIN: closed $9,190 -120. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.48 - .25 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading April 7th STOCKS RUN-UP Oil Falls False Hopes Today was an amazing day! I don’t believe that the bottom has been made, and I don’t think that today was a day to be a buyer, but as my Closing Comments says, “I could not have been more wrong.” We cut through every area of supply that I pointed out in last night’s Weekly Strategies. Here is the closing comment for tonight: https://youtu.be/JHjU3KOAQR8 . My problem with today’s action is that while everyone wants to believe that this was the bottom, historically, it is without precedent. There are many problems that we will face that are not currently known. The earnings of the companies that have no idea how long consumers are not buying clothes at Macy’s or TJ Maxx, or restaurants, where it’s not like you can make up the business with people eating 2 meals at a time. The closure of the Airbus plant in Alabama, or American Airlines cutting their N.Y. flights from 271 /day down to 13 is just not something that can be quantified when it comes to the net effect to both the balance sheet and profits. But the DJIA was +1627.46 (7.73%), NASDAQ +540.16 (7.33%), S&P 500 +175.03 (7.03%), the Russell +86.72 (8.24%) and the DJ Transports +532.38 (7.29%). Market internals left a lot to be desired with the A/D solid at NYSE 9.5:1 and NASDAQ 5.5:1, but volume was anemic with NYSE 1.4 billion and the NASDAQ 3.8 billion. All 30 DJIA stocks were higher with BA leading the way +113.31 DP’s but no other triple digit winners. On the +11.37% gainer on 3/24 there were 10 triple-digit winners. The strongest groups were Information technology, financials and consumer discretionary, with only Consumer Staples weak. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1400 members. SECTORS: We started with positive numbers from Europe on COVID-19 deaths and the first group pre-market were the some of the smaller biotech firms with Inovio Pharma (INO) started with a gap up and after trading over $8.80, never quite made it back in regular hours and closed $8.44 +.70 (9.04%), Immunomedics (IMMU) ended a trial for their breast cancer treatment because it’s efficacy was confirmed. The stock, which traded as high as $27.33 in 2018 had fallen to $8.80 last week opened the day at $20.09 but sold off a bit to close $18.78 +9.38 (99.79%). Also in the same group, CODX finished $10.31 +2.11 (25.73%) and VIR $36.70 +7.70 (26.55%). In another group, Wayfair beat both revenues and earnings and the home goods company, which traded down from $173 last year to a low of 21.70 on 3/19 gapped up to open $70.28 and closed $71.50 +20.87 (41.22%). BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +9.58, ABBV +2.31, REGN +10.95, ISRG +37.33 (8.07%), MYL +.30, TEVA +.94 (11.19%), VRTX +17.69 (7.42%), BHC +1.27, INCY +6.80, ICPT +3.90, LABU +4.44 (22.11%) and IBB $110.50 +4.25 (4%). CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +,45, CGC +1.10, CRON +.20, GWPH +4.78, PYX +.18, NBEV +.05, CURLF +.13, KERN +.80 (14.75%) and MJ $10.96 +.52 (4.98%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +16.50 (4.71%), RTX (the combination of RTN and UTX) was +7.32 (14.66%), gd +8.07, txt +2.49, noc +18.98, bwxt +.42, tdy +19.66 (6.81%) and ITA $148.00 +12.10 (8.9%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M + .94 (19.54%), JWN +3.38 (25.9%), KSS +3.04 (26.41%), DDS +8.93 (37.41%), JCP +.05 (18.34%), WMT +5.92, TGT +4.93, TJX +5.15 (12.57%), RL +7.60 (12.46%), UAA +.77, LULU +12.75, TPR +2.09, CPRI +2.17 (25.44%) and XRT $30.21 +3.02 (11.11%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +89.36, AMZN +83.41, AAPL +21.29 (8.82%), FB +10.82, NFLX +17.22, NVDA +25.47 (10.44%), TSLA +32.99, BABA +9.39, BIDU +5.66, BA +23.38 (18.78%), CAT +5.33, DIS +5.92 and XLK $83.70 +6.58 (8.53%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +10.07, JPM +5.45, BAC +1.41, MS +3.40, C +3.51, PNC +9.12, AIG +1.11, TRV +5.09, AXP +10.70 (14.54%) and XLF $21.05 +1.41 (7.18%). OIL, $26.08 -2.26. The explosive moves in Oil recently have been news driven and the cancellation of the OPEC meeting and the threat of tariffs from Mr. Trump have cut off the rally from the $20.00 level. Today’s decline had little to do with the Oil stocks as all were higher. CVX +5.40, XOM +1.40, OXY +.50, NBL +.49, MRO +.02, MPC +3.03 (15.10%), RIG +.05, APA +.62, BP +.28 and XLE $31.41 +1.58 (5.3%). METALS, GOLD: $1,693.90 + 48.20. After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 until today when it traded $1,715 before selling off a bit. Tonight, it has traded as high as $1742.00 and looks to be higher in the near future. BITCOIN: closed $7,330 +530. After we traded in a short-range day followed by a $1,000 range on Friday BTC closed above $7,000 for the first time since it broke to the downside early last month. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.95 + .47 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading JULY 17th NFLX Misses, Poor Guidance NASDAQ Still Weaker ECONOMIC #S STRONG Today’s market got off to soft a start with the NASDAQ futures down as much (points, 2.4X percent) and all of the averages fell to the lows of the early trade in the first 15 minutes and the only one NOT to rally was the NASDAQ. It continued lower for another 2 hours and finally made it back to the high of the day around 1:30, although still down and fell to a new low by 3:00 but rallied into the close to finish -136.39 (.50%), NASDAQ -76.66 (.73%), S&P 500 -10.99 (.34%), the Russell -10.71 (.72%), and the DJ Transports +53.95 (.55%). The DJIA was 17:13 Down with the big losers being BA -63DP’s, AAPL -33, MSFT -29 and V -21 DP’S. The overall internals 7:6 down on the NYSE and 3:2 on the NASDAQ while volume was slightly lower. The early morning employment numbers were better with initial claims 1.3million and continuing claims 17.338. Retail sales gained 7.5% vs 5.2 expected, ex-autos and gas they were 6.7%. Business inventories were in-line at 2.3 and NAHB housing index was 72 +14 vs 62 expected. All in all, a good showing, even if the market didn’t react to the upside. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/kCN9QYyQnWc SECTORS: NFLX was the feature this afternoon with a disappointing report after the close. While they had a beat on earnings, it wasn’t as good as the “whisper number” and the forward guidance for Q3 was a major miss. The stock had closed $527.39 +4.13 (.79%) but immediately fell to $449.65 before bouncing back a bit to its current level of $473.00 -54.49 (10.33%). PPG reported with a beat on lowered expectations, always an issue for me, while the year over year sales were lower by 24%. Nonetheless, the stock, well off the March low of $70, closed 115.26 -.36 but rallied up to the current level of $120.02 +4.80 (4.17%). The airlines and cruise lines gave up all of yesterday’s pointless gains when the CDC said that there would be no cruise ships in U.S. waters until at least October. This sent the big 3 down with NCLH the big loser -16%, CCL -9.8% and RCL -7.6%. Airlines fared no better with AAL, who sent out 25,000 layoff warnings -7.4%, LUV -4.3%, DAL -4.7% and JBLU -4.6%. After the close AAL and JBLU announced a customer-share agreement to help in the Northeast. I can’t emphasize this enough, at least one or two of these companies will chapter. All of the equity and debt being raised will saddle these companies and mortgage all of their assets. It does not add anything to their ability to create earnings, but just to survive until things get back to “normal,” whatever that actually means. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.15, BGS +.35, FLO unch., CPB +.34, CAG -.15, MDLZ +.94, KHC +1.25, CALM -.39, JJSF +1.85, SAFM +1.38, HRL +.71, SJM +.20, PPC +.09, KR -.10, and PBJ $32.39 +.09 (.28%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -4.07, ABBV -.58, REGN -.53, ISRG -3.80, GILD -.24, MYL -.14, TEVA -.44, VRTX -4.55, BHC -.34, INCY -2.67, ICPT +1.43, LABU -2.10, and IBB $140.70 -1.92 (1.35%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.15, CGC -.06, CRON -.17, GWPH -.17, ACB -.73, CURLF -.18, KERN -.27, and MJ $13.35 -.29 (2.13%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +1.24, GD +2.25, TXT -.15, NOC +2.89, BWXT +.77, TDY +1/05, RTX -.84, and ITA $163.47 -1.72 (1.04%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M -.32, JWN -.17, KSS +.23, DDS +.42, WMT +.85, TGT +.27, TJX +.62, RL +.41, UAA +.05, LULU +.57, TPR -.22, CPRI +.10, and XRT $45.68 +.29 (.64%). FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -11.88, AMZN -42.84, AAPL -5.75, FB -.39, NFLX -43.68, NVDA -5.24, TSLA -57.97, BABA -6.21, BIDU -1.77, CMG -3.65, CAT +.19, BA -9.44, DIS -1.92, and XLK $106.31 -1.33 (1.24%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS -2.40, JPM +.28, BAC -.75, MS +1.48, C -.36, PNC +2.07, AIG +.78, TRV +1.36, AXP -1.28, V -3.11, and XLF $24.15 UNCH. OIL, $40.93 -.47. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and we finally did that today. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $37.21 -.17 (.45%). GOLD $1,800.30 -13.50. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.10 -.30. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $ .79 -.76. BITCOIN: closed $9,145 -45. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.31 - .16 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading JULY 1st Consumer Confidence Jumps BA Losing Orders FEDEX Loss Sends the Stock Up Best Quarter for DJIA Since Q1 1987 We added some CVS 7/67.50 calls on the decline the last couple days with an average price of $1.16 and they finished $ .78, and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 we added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94 this morning. They closed today $3.30. We also added a position in SLV 8/21 17 calls @ $ .74, and they closed $ .83. Today’s market got off to a soft start in the DJIA on the loss of several more orders for BA but it didn’t take long to stabilize and work back to unchanged while the NASDAQ & S&P 500 shot to the upside right out of the gate. At the close we were +217.08 (.86%), NASDAQ +184.61 (1.87%), S&P-500 +47.05 (1.54%), the Russell +20.16 (1.42%) and the Transports +120.08 (1.33%). Market internals were 9:5 on the NYSE and 2:1 on the NASDAQ. Volume was a little higher (window dressing) for the close of the quarter and the half. The DJIA was 27:3 with BA the biggest loser -11.19 or 76 DP’s and the gainers were MSFT & UNH +35, HD +30, GS +28 and AAPL +20 DPs. The Powell / Mnuchin visit to the Financial Services committee was a real snore. The statements were released yesterday and there were no surprises. All the Congressmen and women made their little speeches without actually asking any serious questions…so a typical day on the Hill. The consumer confidence # was 98.1 up from 85.9 and well above the 92 expected. Not so the Chicago PMI which went the other way at 36.6, up from 32.3, but well below the 45 estimates. Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/nCJrwS4bFWE ... our discord forum link is in the video description. SECTORS: The news of cancellations by Norwegian Air of 92 737 MAX and 5 787 was followed by another cancellation by BOAC. The stock was +14% yesterday but gave back almost half today. NVDA ran up with the rest of the chip names on the back of last night’s earnings from MU +4.8% and XLNX +7% with a close of $379.91 +11.91 (3.2%) and LCRX $323.46 +15.00 (4.87%). But the start today was TSLA. I will be doing a report over this week-end but the story is from Ark Invests Cathie Wood and she tells a GREAT story for Tesla. The stock finished the day $1079.81 +70.46 (3.2%). From a low of $350 in March, the gain is just under 210%, and the market value of the company has grown to $200 Billion. FEDEX reported after the close and had a loss of $1.28 vs $7.56 year ago and a slight miss on revenues. After missing 3 of the last 3 quarters numbers, expectations were low and after closing $140.22 +5.67, it ran to $153.01 +12.89 for a total gain for the day of almost $20.00 or 15%. Even though UPS has been able to raise prices and pick up some of the AMZN business that FDX dropped last year, FDX seems to be doing okay in e-commerce. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +..34, BGS +.04, FLO +.15, CPB +.40, CAG +1.57, MDLZ +.42, KHC +.24, CALM +.50, JJSF +2.56, HRL -.07, SJM +.73, PPC +.83, KR -.27, and PBJ $31.23 +.36 (1.17%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +7.20, ABBV +1.51, REGN +12.78, ISRG +16.06, GILD +2.07, MYL +.09, TEVA +.16, VRTX +5.13, BHC +.06, INCY +1.49, ICPT +.70, LABU +2.75 and IBB $137.00 +2.32 (1.72%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.60, CGC -.19, CRON -.08, GWPH +.80, ACB -.09, CURLF +.11, KERN -.12 and MJ $12.87 -.14 (1.08%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -.57, GD +.39, TXT -.67, NOC -2.52, BWXT +.53, TDY +6.17, RTX -.52, and ITA $164.72 -2.52 (1.51%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.30, JWN -.27, KSS -.09, DDS -.36, WMT +.64, TGT +1.43, TJX -.26, RL -.25, UAA -.09, LULU +17.15 (SEE ABOVE), TPR -.15, CPRI -.02, and XRT $42.88 +.17 (.40%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +17.83, AMZN +75.12, AAPL +2.23, FB +5.06, NFLX +6.97, NVDA +10.43, TSLA +65.95 (6.53%), BABA +.09, BIDU -1.41, CMG +3.05, CAT +1.84, BA -13.74, DIS -.13, and XLK $104.49 +1.84 (1.47%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +3.78, JPM +.93, BAC +.31, MS +.80, C +.78, PNC +2.17, AIG +.41, TRV +2.10, AXP +.40, V +1.63, and XLF $23.14 +.31 (1.36%). OIL, $39.81 -43. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied midday. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.58 +.58 (1.57%). GOLD $1800.50 +19.3. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high and the highest close since $1931.70 in August 2011. We’ve moved $50 since the low on Friday and while the trend and momentum are positive, we may have to test 1790 to consolidate our gains. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 yesterday and we closed $3.30 +1.18 today. BITCOIN: closed $9,185 - 15. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.60 +.12 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading JULY 1st Consumer Confidence Jumps BA Losing Orders FEDEX Loss Sends the Stock Up Best Quarter for DJIA Since Q1 1987 Today’s market got off to a soft start in the DJIA on the loss of several more orders for BA but it didn’t take long to stabilize and work back to unchanged while the NASDAQ & S&P 500 shot to the upside right out of the gate. At the close we were +217.08 (.86%), NASDAQ +184.61 (1.87%), S&P-500 +47.05 (1.54%), the Russell +20.16 (1.42%) and the Transports +120.08 (1.33%). Market internals were 9:5 on the NYSE and 2:1 on the NASDAQ. Volume was a little higher (window dressing) for the close of the quarter and the half. The DJIA was 27:3 with BA the biggest loser -11.19 or 76 DP’s and the gainers were MSFT & UNH +35, HD +30, GS +28 and AAPL +20 DPs. The Powell / Mnuchin visit to the Financial Services committee was a real snore. The statements were released yesterday and there were no surprises. All the Congressmen and women made their little speeches without actually asking any serious questions…so a typical day on the Hill. The consumer confidence # was 98.1 up from 85.9 and well above the 92 expected. Not so the Chicago PMI which went the other way at 36.6, up from 32.3, but well below the 45 estimates. We added some CVS 7/67.50 calls on the decline with an average price of $1.16 and they finished $ .78, and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 and added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94 this morning. They closed today $3.30. We also added a position in SLV 8/21 17 calls @ $ .74, and they closed $ .83. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/nCJrwS4bFWE SECTORS: The news of cancellations by Norwegian Air of 92 737 MAX and 5 787 was followed by another cancellation by BOAC. The stock was +14% yesterday but gave back almost half today. NVDA ran up with the rest of the chip names on the back of last night’s earnings from MU +4.8% and XLNX +7% with a close of $379.91 +11.91 (3.2%) and LCRX $323.46 +15.00 (4.87%). But the start today was TSLA. I will be doing a report over this week-end but the story is from Ark Invests Cathie Wood and she tells a GREAT story for Tesla. The stock finished the day $1079.81 +70.46 (3.2%). From a low of $350 in March, the gain is just under 210%, and the market value of the company has grown to $200 Billion. FEDEX reported after the close and had a loss of $1.28 vs $7.56 year ago and a slight miss on revenues. After missing 3 of the last 3 quarters numbers, expectations were low and after closing $140.22 +5.67, it ran to $153.01 +12.89 for a total gain for the day of almost $20.00 or 15%. Even though UPS has been able to raise prices and pick up some of the AMZN business that FDX dropped last year, FDX seems to be doing okay in e-commerce. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +..34, BGS +.04, FLO +.15, CPB +.40, CAG +1.57, MDLZ +.42, KHC +.24, CALM +.50, JJSF +2.56, HRL -.07, SJM +.73, PPC +.83, KR -.27, and PBJ $31.23 +.36 (1.17%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +7.20, ABBV +1.51, REGN +12.78, ISRG +16.06, GILD +2.07, MYL +.09, TEVA +.16, VRTX +5.13, BHC +.06, INCY +1.49, ICPT +.70, LABU +2.75 and IBB $137.00 +2.32 (1.72%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.60, CGC -.19, CRON -.08, GWPH +.80, ACB -.09, CURLF +.11, KERN -.12 and MJ $12.87 -.14 (1.08%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -.57, GD +.39, TXT -.67, NOC -2.52, BWXT +.53, TDY +6.17, RTX -.52, and ITA $164.72 -2.52 (1.51%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.30, JWN -.27, KSS -.09, DDS -.36, WMT +.64, TGT +1.43, TJX -.26, RL -.25, UAA -.09, LULU +17.15 (SEE ABOVE), TPR -.15, CPRI -.02, and XRT $42.88 +.17 (.40%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +17.83, AMZN +75.12, AAPL +2.23, FB +5.06, NFLX +6.97, NVDA +10.43, TSLA +65.95 (6.53%), BABA +.09, BIDU -1.41, CMG +3.05, CAT +1.84, BA -13.74, DIS -.13, and XLK $104.49 +1.84 (1.47%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +3.78, JPM +.93, BAC +.31, MS +.80, C +.78, PNC +2.17, AIG +.41, TRV +2.10, AXP +.40, V +1.63, and XLF $23.14 +.31 (1.36%). OIL, $39.81 -43. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied midday. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.58 +.58 (1.57%). GOLD $1800.50 +19.3. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high and the highest close since $1931.70 in August 2011. We’ve moved $50 since the low on Friday and while the trend and momentum are positive, we may have to test 1790 to consolidate our gains. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 yesterday and we closed $3.30 +1.18 today. BITCOIN: closed $9,185 - 15. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.60 +.12 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Coinviva BTC-USD Daily Chart The volatility of Bitcoin movement remained low for the second week. Since the beginning of July, the Bitcoin price ranged between $8,918 and $9,298. The trend remained slightly bearish as the price failed to break above $10,000 last month, and the bars were hovering around the lower Keltner band. The current support is at $9,000. If the volatility starts to pick up this week and breaks below the support, a short signal is confirmed amid the current bearish trend. The next support level is at $8,500. Review of the week: CoinGecko, the cryptocurrency analytics firm, in its recent quarterly report for Q2 2020, charted the price change for before and after the 2016 and the 2020 halvings. In July 2016, Bitcoin was trading between $400 – $950. While in the 50 days prior, it rose by 11 percent, in the 50 days after the halving, the price dropped by 9 percent. Coming back to 2020, in the 50 days prior to the halving, the price rose by 50 percent, and in the 50 days after, by 5 percent. Given the late halving surplus in 2016, the prevailing economic conditions of 2020, and the massive increase in the market capitalization of Bitcoin in the ensuing four years, it concluded that the present price is “more bullish” than expected: “Despite having a market capitalization 15 times larger in 2020 than in 2016, Bitcoin showed a more bullish price movement during the 3rd Halving event.” https://preview.redd.it/pd26ci5en6951.png?width=912&format=png&auto=webp&s=0feabe20422b0aa13e8b8c6e80991ed63ddc5157 Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice. About Coinviva: Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience. Homepage: https://coinviva.com/ Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
Major Moon Math Update: The Pre Halving Prognostication Update
Major Moon Math Update: The Pre Halving Prognostication Update
https://www.moonmath.win/ The halving is coming and just like each preceding halving event bears argue that the halving is priced in while bulls argue that it’s impossible to price in the halving. The pattern repeats itself predictably. If you don’t believe me go back and look at the discussion threads leading up to the last halving. We see the same arguments using the same reasoning today that we saw back then. Where does Moon Math stand on the controversy? That shouldn’t be hard to predict; both perspectives have important truths to observe. Unwrapping the truths and attaching ourselves to what seems most important is a hard problem, and maybe we can try to figure that out together. https://www.tradingview.com/x/mgWU9IkM/ We’re going to unpack that graphic over the course of this post. Bitcoin’s price moves ahead of itself a little before each halving event and cools off immediately after the price surges. That happens even though eight weeks before the last halving we saw the price almost double in a four week period. Bulls will be quick to point out that the price still jumped from a low of $430 to a high of $780, but the market showed that the price was unsustainable on the high end of that. https://www.tradingview.com/x/pJK2Ppd6/ The 2012 halving also showed an unsustainable doubling of the price, from a low of $7.05 to a high of $15.50 8 weeks before the halving. https://www.tradingview.com/x/zKx5pyYx/ Each time bitcoin breaks out like this before the halving we see the price recede back to more rational prices. Then, after the halving, the price rises into a slow multi-year parabolic advance. To be clear, I do NOT see bitcoin’s price doubling again before the halving. That improbable event will take us to a new ATH and performance like that will out pace all previous halving events. It could happen, but $20k bitcoin before the third quarter of this year is an extremely low probability event. Instead, I think we’re seeing the impact of a mature and slower market. Instead of the price doubling over a few weeks we see it more than double over a year. Proportionally we’re right where we should be, and $10k bitcoin only seems like a slightly high premium for late market entrances. The Moon Math narrative is that the price of bitcoin is stabilizing over time. We can see that by measuring the gap between Bollinger bands from week to week. https://www.tradingview.com/x/uN71Abe5/ BBand width shows us that volatility is trending down, but also that we’re seeing fewer periods of extended price stability. Overall, though, bitcoin is much less volatile in the past. We can also see that we’ve been in an extended period of accumulation as measured by “on balance volume” https://www.tradingview.com/x/VlEjfXgd/ The market is accumulating bitcoin week over week and the rate of that accumulation is, compared historically, very gradual. We haven’t seen rapid accumulation spikes pre halving, yet. The lack of obscene pre halving accumulation might convince some bulls that the market hasn’t seen what should be a pre halving surge. Those bulls might pause for a minute and observe the impact of leverage and the increased volume we’ve seen over the last several weeks. The pre halving surge is here, but the market might have priced in the “inevitable” surge and crash by way of leveraged short positions. Have short positions stabilized bitcoin’s price performance and prevented what would otherwise be a very irrational pre halving swing? Indeed, the market cannot rationally anticipate the impact of the halving event, but it can smooth out the peaks and valleys that we’ve seen in the past. Again, look at OBV and BBand widths on the weekly chart and try to tell yourself that bitcoin is less stable today than it was 4 or 8 years ago. Retail’s share of overall market volume has also been increasing steadily. https://www.tradingview.com/x/33C6kCo The story is the same with (green) and without (red) Bitmex. More bitcoins are being purchased on unleveraged markets. Presumably those bitcoins are being held longer term. On the twelve-hour chart we see a descending broadening wedge. https://www.tradingview.com/x/dfi2jtzB/ http://thepatternsite.com/dbw.html If this pattern confirms we’ll see an irrational pre halving surge, but I don’t think it we’ll see a local high before the halving.
The Final prognostication
Cash, stability, volume, fractals, fundamentals, classical charts… everything is pointing to business as usual for the halving, but with less gusto. The price isn’t going to do a lot in 2020 and any substantial breakout will probably be kyboshed by way of shorts on leveraged markets. It’s going to look a lot like past halvings; the price will look and feel flat, which is what our final chart projects. Behold, the price projected using the price performance of the last two halvings. The blue line describes what I think will happen: https://www.tradingview.com/x/kdrfJNA And now zoomed out: https://www.tradingview.com/x/1B9PVdF0/ So, as always, zoom the fuck out. Good hunting
﷽ The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people. The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets. Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market Crash
The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially. All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity. Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses. Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely. So, why inflate the economy so much? Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value. Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat. Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis. Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of Bitcoin
The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero. Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology. Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value. Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block. Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer. Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed. Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public. A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely. Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY). In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing. The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors. Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market. According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains. We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.
Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin
Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail. Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form. A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding. Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading. Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure. Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price. Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not. We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in. What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows. Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram. 1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21 2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations. The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year! Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market. Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020. The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX. Therefore, our timeline looks like:
2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
At this point, Bitcoin was worth 16.67 times more expensive than at the beginning of the year, and its capitalization reached $1 million. BTC Price Fluctuations in 2011-2012 After the rapid growth to $0.5 and the same rapid decline to $0.15, Bitcoin continued to consolidate in the price range of $0.2-0.3 until the beginning of January 2011 . On 18 August 2008, the domain name bitcoin.org was registered. Later that year on October 31st, a link to a paper authored by Satoshi Nakamoto titled Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System was posted to a cryptography mailing list.. On the 9th of November, the Bitcoin project was registered at the open-source-projects community resource, SourceForge.net. Bitcoincharts is the world's leading provider for financial and technical data related to the Bitcoin network. It provides news, markets, price charts and more. Bitcoin's volatility — measured as the 60-day rolling standard deviation — hit a 15-month low this week. The post Bitcoin’s volatility reached a 15-month low this week appeared first on The Block. Bitcoin Statistics. Current Bitcoin (Bitcoin) price is 9163.78 USD. It has a current circulating supply of 18,437,700 BTC coins and a Market Cap of $168,959,000,000 USD. Bitcoin stock price is up by (0.48%) today.$13,548,000,000 USD worth of Bitcoin (BTC) has been traded in the past 24 hours. You can follow Bitcoin (BTC)'s progress by adding it to your favourites and creating a free portfolio
Bitcoin Chart Technical Analysis for 07-01-2020 ... 15 Year Old Forex Trader Reads Chart Like a Pro & Reveals His "Golden Zone" Trading System - Duration: 10:42. Trading Nut 325,867 views. Welcome to Team Underground, I (Thomas) do weekly BTC price analysis on YouTube. I've been full time trading bitcoin for over a year now and I've decided to share some of my analysis on YouTube ... NESTLE EQUITY CHART 15 MIN LIVE ON 16 JULY 2020 Rohan Chaware ... 12 Year Old Boy Humiliates Simon Cowell ... How Kraken Accelerates Cryptocurrency Adoption Bitcoin 2020 ALL AP INFO TECH 54,644 ... Bitcoin Chart Technical Analysis for 07-15-2020 - Duration: ... 15 Year Old Forex Trader Reads Chart Like a Pro & Reveals His "Golden Zone" Trading System - Duration: 10:42. How To Pay Off Your Mortgage Fast Using Velocity Banking How To Pay Off Your Mortgage In 5-7 Years - Duration: 41:34. Think Wealthy with Mike Adams 723,399 views 41:34